Handicapping College Basketball

College Basketball Previews By: George Smeader
George Smeader is the Publisher and Editor-in-Chier of ProCappers Weekly. A on-line weekly magazine coving the world of professional sports handicapping. He has been involved with this publication from the very beginning.

Tourney Talk - O.K. everyone stop what youre doing put your brackets away and take a deep breath. After a weekend where underdogs across the country all seemed to look like 20/1 Derby Lane greyhounds running the race of their lives its time to clear our heads and get back to basics. Lets face it when a team like Syracuse can be an underdog in four straight games in four straight days and wins all of them for a conference crown we all need to take a break. Like a car that has just taken a cross-country trip we need to tune ourselves up.

Just as the NHL MLB and of course the NFL the NCAA basketball tournament is a whole new season. The slate is clear and all previous sins are forgiven. The world beaters of February have to show up for the first round of the regionals this weekend as focused as the team whos on a dream run and doesnt have one scholarship player. Last years National runner-up Illinois opens up against an Air Force team that didnt even watch the selection show because they figured they had no chance of getting an invitation. Well on Thursday at 4:25pm. PST the Falcons will tip off in San Diego against the Illini and theyre getting 8 points worth of support.

The NCAA tournament has gotten so big that it even hits seasoned handicappers like a hurricane wind gust. Over recent years weve seen unknowns plow into the tournament and buzz saw through everyones brackets on day one. I was in attendance last year when Vermont the America East representative stunned Syracuse in the first round. Even the small section wearing the Catamounts yellow and green didnt believe it. Then less than two hours later people were snapping their pencils when Bucknell brought the city of Lawrence Ka. to a stand still as the Bison upset the Jayhawks. Folks 95% of the betting public couldnt even tell you where Bucknell is never mind tell you if they can win a tournament game? You could fit the Langone Recreation Center in Lewisburg Pa. INSIDE of Phog Allen Field house the home of Jayhawk hoops. With upsets like these having happened so recently that the pain still lingers in peoples guts fans in bracketland are now looking to find the next shock the world scenario and want to be a part of it. Thats not what were all about.

Anyone reading this article isnt interested in storybook dreams and Cinderella fantasies. Were handicappers looking at lines and finding weaknesses and advantages that we can pounce on and cash winning tickets. If your Aunt Margaret brings home a bracket from her pool at work and asks you to help her fill it out thats great entertainment but in the real world of Big Boy gambling brackets have absolutely nothing to do with winning money from a casino in Las Vegas.

What makes this tournament such a puzzle is that all games are played on neutral courts. In the inexact science of picking winners thats the difference between indulging on surf-n-turf or redeeming Big Mac coupons.

Back on February 25th Kansas headed to Texas on a 10 game winning streak to play the Longhorns in a Saturday night ESPN game. Texas on their home court was a 6 point favorite. On that night Kansas could have been getting 16 points and it wouldnt have mattered. The Jayhawks looked like a deer staring at headlights in the second half and got blown out by 25 it was a complete mismatch. This past Sunday in the Big 12 final the two teams met again on a neutral court. Kansas won by 12.

Another difference that makes this tournament format unique is the extensive travel involved. The TV teams in the big conferences have deep pockets and dont think twice about writing checks for airfare and hotel costs throughout the regular season. For those fortunate ones the tournament is nothing new. For others its a new experience in itself. The Penn Quakers dominated the Ivy League by riding buses to and from games and rarely play weekday games because it interferes with their academic schedules. Their longest road trip since Christmas break was a 360 mile ride to play Dartmouth. This week they'll travel over 1500 miles to play Texas in another time zone.

As you comb through the lines for Thursday and Friday remember every team is a road team. Everythings equal from the time the teams get off the plane until the National anthem. Were betting pure basketball complete with match-up zones and game plans from here on out.

Dont get caught up in all the excitement that CBS will throw at you as they go from game to game. Betting every game and half time line is the equivalent of gambling suicide you'll bury yourself. Relax enjoy the games and most of all bet with confidence. Know what games you like and when you get a good line fire away. For the record tell Aunt Maggie that 14 Winthrop is going to give 2 Tennessee all they can handle.

By: Steve Kosmider
Steve Kosmider is a Staff Writer & Member of the Sports Handicapping Team for ProCappers Weekly!