SWEET SIXTEEN MATCHUPS

Steve Merril's NCAA Fullcourt Matchup Report By: Steve Merril
Steve Merril is one of the most proven and consistent sports analysts in the nation. His success is based on a thorough knowledge of the teams and players, along with a variety of handicapping techniques such as statistical analysis, team trends and league-wide systems, along with fundamental handicapping which includes matchups and emotion.

Steve Merril's College Fullcourt Report

There were 326 teams competing for the Division I Men’s NCAA Basketball Championship when the season began four months ago and now the field has been dwindled down to just sixteen squads. Below is a look at all four matchups for Thursday night.

Matchup - LSU vs. DUKE (-6, 147 ½) – 7:10 pm ET (Atlanta, GA)

An interesting matchup as LSU holds the frontcourt edge, while Duke holds the advantage in the backcourt. The line has dropped a bit in this game and my overall power ratings favor Duke by five points on a neutral court.

LSU led the SEC with a +7.4 margin of victory in conference games, while Duke led the ACC with a +9.6 average conference win. The strength of the two conferences are almost dead evening based on my power ratings, so the regular season inter-conference statistics are meaningful when handicapping this game.

LSU has one of the most powerful frontcourts in the nation which includes four of their top five scorers. Star freshman forward Tyrus Thomas is still playing at less than full strength and he has averaged only 19 ½ minutes in the team’s two tournament games. Thomas leads the team in blocks (3.1 bpg) and is second in rebounding (9.3 rpg) and fourth in scoring (12.7 ppg).

Duke relies more on their outside scoring as they attempt 35 percent of their shots from three-point range, compared to an LSU team that attempts just 22 percent from long range. Duke averages 39.4 percent from beyond the arc this year (versus opponents that allowed just 34.6 percent) and the Blue Devils should have success against a below average LSU perimeter defense that allowed 37.9 percent on the road this season.

Matchup - BRADLEY vs. MEMPHIS (-6, 142) – 7:25 pm ET (Oakland, CA)

Memphis dominated a weak Conference USA this season, winning by an average margin of +16.1 points per game, while Bradley was the most dominant team in their conference and won their Missouri Valley games by an average margin of +7.4 ppg.

The teams are bit closer in talent than the scoring margins would seem to indicate as my power ratings show the Missouri Valley Conference as eight points stronger on average than Conference USA this season. Overall, my five sets of power ratings combined favor Memphis by 5 ½ points on a neutral court tonight.

Both teams are in negative technical situations as Bradley is coming off back-to-back SU wins as an underdog, while Memphis is in a negative situation which plays against highly seeded tournament teams have covered the pointspread in back-to-back games.

Both teams have solid offenses as Memphis averages 81.0 points per game (versus opponents that allow just 66.8 ppg), while Bradley averages 71.7 points per game this season (versus opponents that allowed just 64.3 ppg overall).

While each offense is strong, the defenses are equally tough as Memphis permits just 38.2 percent from the field (versus teams averaging 44.2 percent) and Bradley allows only 40.1 percent field goal shooting (versus opponents that average 43.5 percent from the floor).

Matchup - WEST VIRGINIA vs. TEXAS (-5, 131 ½) – 9:40 pm ET (Atlanta, GA)

This is a rematch from an earlier meeting this season on November 21st in Kansas City when Texas overcame a ten point second half deficit and won 76-75 as a 6-point favorite in the semi-finals of the Guardians Classic. Texas scored the winning basket with just 3.6 seconds remaining and then blocked a final West Virginia shot to preserve the victory.

The game easily went Over the closing total of 141 as both offensives were extremely hot from the field. Texas outshot West Virginia 54-48 percent and held a 44-39 percent edge from beyond the arc. The reason the game was close was because West Virginia held a 12-5 free throw attempt edge and a huge 24-11 turnover advantage.

My overall power ratings favor Texas by 7 ½ points tonight, but West Virginia is a very dangerous post-season squad as the Mountaineer attempt over half their shots from three-point range and when they are hot, the Mountaineers can beat anybody. This was the case last year when West Virginia made a surprise trip to the Elite Eight and overall the Mountaineers stand a perfect 6-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament under head coach John Beilein the past two years.

Matchup - GONZAGA vs. UCLA (-3, 138) – 9:55 pm ET (Oakland, CA)

This line quickly shot up from -3 to -4 ½ earlier this week when it was announced that Gonzaga’s All-American forward, Adam Morrison (28.2 ppg), was battling from the flu. The concern was that it might take him longer than normal to recover due to the fact he is a diabetic. The pointspread has since dropped back down after Morrison practiced on Wednesday and it appears he is ready to play tonight.

UCLA is also battling a key injury as starting point guard Jordan Farmar is recovering from a wrist injury that he incurred during Saturday night’s game versus Alabama. Farmer is expected to play tonight and he leads the Bruin’s in assists (5.2 apg) and is second in scoring (13.6 ppg).

Gonzaga relies heavily on their inside scoring as the Bulldogs take over 73 percent of their shots from inside the arc, with only 27 percent of their offensive attempts coming from three-point range. Meanwhile, UCLA relies more on the outside shot as the Bruins attempt nearly 35 percent of their shots from beyond the arc.

The key to this game will be which team can force the tempo and dictate their style of play as Gonzaga is more comfortable in an uptempo pace, while UCLA prefers a slow-down defensive battle in the halfcourt.

Steve Merril is an award-winning professional handicapper that specializes in college and pro football, basketball, baseball, and racing. Visit Steve's Handicapping Page for additional FREE basketball wagering selections.