PLAY IN GAME - NCAA TOURNAMENT

Steve Merril's NBA Fullcourt Report By: Steve Merril
Steve Merril is one of the most proven and consistent sports analysts in the nation. His success is based on a thorough knowledge of the teams and players, along with a variety of handicapping techniques such as statistical analysis, team trends and league-wide systems, along with fundamental handicapping which includes matchups and emotion.

Steve Merril's NCAA Tournament Fullcourt Report (Mar 14th)

The NIT and the NCAA Tournament both begin tonight as 14 teams start play in the National Invitation Tournement, while Hampton and Monmouth officially start the NCAA Tournament by participating in the play-in game.

Below is a look at both college basketball games on ESPN national television for Tuesday night.

NCAA Tournament

HAMPTON vs. MONMOUTH (-4, 124) (at Dayton, OH) (ESPN)

It is no surprise that Hampton is meeting Monmouth in the play-in game as these two clubs have the two weakest RPI’s in this year’s tournament. Hampton is the worst team in the Field of 65 with a RPI of 284 and the Pirates needed to win four games in four days last week in the Mid-Eastern Conference tournament. The Pirates won outright in the finals, 60-56, as a 5-point underdog versus the top team in the conference, Delaware State, who had a solid RPI of 123.

Hampton started the season just 1-7 SU as they were missing some key players in November and December; however the Pirates finished with a solid 15-8 SU run over their past twenty-three games. Hampton played an incredibly weak schedule as they faced only seven teams ranked in the RPI top 200 and they went just 2-5 SU in those seven games.

Monmouth also pulled an upset in their conference tournament and beat the top two teams, Central Connecticut State and Fairleigh Dickinson, to ensure a bid. Monmouth has the second worst RPI in the Field of 65 this year. Monmouth’s RPI is 144 and they were 7-8 SU versus the top 200 opponents they faced.

Both teams have solid defenses as each club lead their conferences in field goal percentage allowed. Hampton allowed just 39.1 percent and Monmouth permitted only 40.8 percent in conference games this season.

NIT

VIRGINIA at STANFORD (-4 ½, 129 ½) (ESPN)

Both Virginia and Stanford have struggled down the stretch as Cavaliers were 1-4 SU (1-3-1 ATS) over the past five games while Stanford was 2-4 SU (1-5 ATS) over their final six games.

There have been no recent head-to-head meetings between these squads; however they did have three common opponents this season (Gonzaga, Virginia Tech, and Arizona). Virginia lost both games versus Arizona and Gonzaga and was 3-0 SU/ATS in three meetings versus in-state rival Virginia Tech, including a recent win in the ACC Tournament last Thursday.

Stanford lost both games versus Gonzaga and Virginia Tech and also went 0-3 SU (1-2 ATS) in three meetings versus conference rival Arizona, including a loss last Thursday in the PAC 10 Tournament.

Overall, Virginia was 3-2 SU (4-1 ATS) against common opponents this season, while Stanford was 0-5 SU (2-3 ATS) in those same games. Virginia was outscored by an average score of 63-69 per game and outshot 43-45 percent from the field, while Stanford lost by average score of 70-76, but outshot their opponents 46-45 percent overall.

Stanford has the edge of playing this game on their home court, where the Cardinal were 10-3 SU this season. Virginia was just 4-11 SU away from home, but the Cavaliers do have a slightly higher RPI of 80, while Stanford finished with a RPI of 86. Virginia also fared better against quality teams, going 5-12 SU versus the RPI Top 100, while Stanford was just 2-9 SU versus that same level of competition.

STEVE MERRIL is a professional sports handicapper and a documented member of The Professional Handicappers League. Get his Premium plays here.