Wagering On Sweet Sixteen Games

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Friday’s Mid-Major Madness
by Shawn Sillinger

If you loved them in BracketBusters, you’ll love them even more in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament.

Friday’s slate of four Regional matchups has a little something for everyone. There are two No. 1 seeds trying to survive against tough competition, two up-and-comers about to collide, and a rematch from last month’s mid-major BracketBusters television spectacle: George Mason versus Wichita State.

Here is the rundown on all four games.

Washington Region: No. 11 George Mason Patriots vs. No. 7 Wichita State Shockers

Handicappers have enjoyed making money off both these teams – the Patriots went 17-9-2 against the spread this season, the Shockers a little less shocking at 15-13-1 ATS after entering the big dance on a 1-4 ATS slide. That mini-slump included a 70-67 loss to George Mason at BracketBusters, with Wichita State favored by 3 ½ points.

The Pats are slight favorites in this matchup thanks to last month’s victory, plus their tougher road to the third round. George Mason downed two of the most storied programs in college, the Michigan State Spartans and the defending champion North Carolina Tar Heels. Wichita State had the easier route, beating a good Seton Hall Pirates team and the sinking ship that was the Tennessee Volunteers (2-6 ATS after a tremendous 15-4 ATS start to the campaign). But these are two evenly matched teams in just about every way. Either one could do some damage in the Elite Eight.

Minneapolis Region: No. 3 Florida Gators vs. No. 7 Georgetown Hoyas

Talk about your young ball clubs. The Gators were supposed to be barbecue after losing David Lee, Anthony Roberson and Matt Walsh. Not so. Florida emerged as the season progressed, winning the last seven in a row (4-2-1 ATS) to claim the SEC title and get to the Regional round at the big dance. Leading the way are sophomore swingman Corey Brewer and sophomore forward Joakim Noah. Both are playing their way into lottery position at the upcoming NBA draft, which makes the Gators slim favorites over a Georgetown squad, equally young, that lost to Syracuse in the Big East tourney.

Minneapolis Region: No. 1 Villanova Wildcats vs. No. 4 Boston College Eagles

For a change, the expected teams advanced to a regional semifinal. What happens next is anybody’s guess – this could be the most competitive game in the Sweet 16, with BC playing the role of the small underdog. Pacific took the Eagles into overtime in the first round. That may have put some much-needed fear into BC – they crushed Montana in Round Two to improve to 7-1 SU and ATS in their past eight games. Conversely, the ‘Cats are in a 2-6 ATS slump and appear overvalued after their upset win over the Connecticut Huskies last month.

Washington Region: No. 1 Connecticut Huskies vs. No. 5 Washington Huskies

There is little debate about this one. UConn is the favorite to win the entire tournament. The Huskies did very well to shake off their soft reputation to beat Utah State in their dangerous 5-12 matchup, then upset Illinois to help shut the Big Ten out of the Sweet Sixteen. The party in the Pacific Northwest probably ends here. UConn may have lost five in a row ATS, but there won’t be too much chalk standing in between the Huskies and the pay window this time around.

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