Sweet Sixteen Wagering

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Can Bradley topple the Tigers?
by Shawn Sillinger

Which No. 1 seed is going to be eliminated before the Final Four?

This is a popular question being asked by many hoops fans heading into the Sweet 16 this week. And the trendy answer to the question appears to be Memphis.

Why Memphis? That may have to do with the fact that the Tigers are not from one of the major conferences like the other three No. 1 seeds.

Yet unlike a couple of the No. 1 seeds from the much talked about Big East, Memphis was convincing in its first two wins of the tourney having knocked off No. 16 Oral Roberts and No. 9 Bucknell.

In both cases, the Tigers covered hefty spreads - they ripped Oral Roberts 94-78 as 10.5-point favorites and bashed Bucknell 72-56 as a 7.5-point chalk.

Villanova, meanwhile, kept things close and failed to cover in their first two games. They beat the play-in team, No. 16 Monmouth, by a score of just 58-45 as 20-point faves and barely got by Arizona 82-78 as a 7-point chalk.

UConn also had trouble and was unable to cover the number in rounds one and two. In fact, in their first game against No. 16 Albany, the Huskies were down by 12 points with 11 minutes remaining before coming back to win 72-59 as a 20-point chalk.

They then eked out an 87-83 victory over No. 8 Kentucky as a 9-point favorite.

Like Memphis, Duke was convincing as a No. 1 seed. They had little trouble beating No. 16 Southern 70-54, although they did not cover the 25.5-point spread. They followed that up with a 74-61 win over No. 8 George Washington as an 8.5-point favorite.

So, even though they’ve looked dominant, will Memphis fall before the Final Four?

The Tigers’ next opponent is No. 13 Bradley in Oakland (Thursday, 7:27 p.m. ET, CBS). The Braves are one of the big surprises from the Missouri Valley Conference having beaten No. 4 Kansas 77-73 as 7-point dogs and No. 5 Pittsburgh 72-66 as 5-point pups.

The Braves enter the Sweet 16 of the Oakland bracket having gone 9-1 straight up (SU) and 8-1-1 against the spread (ATS) in their past 10 games.

Perhaps because they are not in one of the big conferences and are not as well known, the Braves have been getting more favorable spreads all season.

As a result, Bradley is one of the top two betting teams still in the tournament. Overall, the Braves are 19-10-1 ATS (a winning percentage of 63 percent).

For Thursday’s game against Memphis, the Braves opened as 6.5-point underdogs.

The only team with a betting record better than Bradley still in the tournament is UCLA. The Bruins are 20-11 ATS overall (a winning percentage of 65 percent).

Seeded No. 2, the Bruins advanced the Sweet 16 in the Oakland bracket with wins over No. 15 Belmont and No. 10 Alabama.

In the first game, UCLA trounced Belmont 78-44 easily covering as 16.5-point faves. They followed that up with a slim 62-59 win over the Crimson Tide failing to cover as an 8-point chalk.

After the Memphis-Bradley game on Thursday, the Bruins will tip off with No. 3 Gonzaga (9:57 p.m. ET, CBS).

The Bulldogs are polar opposites of UCLA in terms of their betting record. At 13-19 ATS, Gonzaga has the worst betting record among teams still in the tourney (a winning percentage of just 41 percent).

All the hype surrounding Gonzaga forward Adam Morrison, the nation’s leading scorer, no doubt contributed to less favorable spreads for the Bulldogs this season.

The Bulldogs advanced to the Sweet 16 by beating No. 14 Xavier 79-75 as 5.5-point favorites. They then beat No. 6 Indiana 90-80 as a 3.5-point chalk.

Gonzaga opened as a 3-point underdog versus UCLA. It’s the first time the Zags have been dogs since visiting Memphis in late January. They lost that game 83-72 failing to beat the spread as 8.5-point dogs. The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS as dogs this season.

Gonzaga is 5-11 ATS in their past 16 games; UCLA is 13-3 ATS in their past 16.

Other Thursday games (Atlanta bracket):
No. 4 LSU vs. No. 1 Duke (7:10 p.m. ET, CBS): Blue Devils are 7-point favorites; No. 6 West Virginia vs. No. 2 Texas (9:40 p.m. ET, CBS): Longhorns are 5-point faves.

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