We’ve seen the Miami
Heat dominated in Dallas by the Mavericks. Can
a change of scenery make a difference?
The Heat are favored by four
points heading into Game 3 of their best-of-seven
championship series against the Mavs. This despite
a tour de force by Dallas in Sunday’s Game
2, when Dirk Nowitzki dumped 26 points and 16
rebounds on Miami, and the Mavs won 99-85 to open
up a 2-0 series lead on the Heat. Dallas is also
2-0 against the spread in this series; the last
time Miami bagged the cash against the Mavs was
back in 2003.
As successful as Nowitzki
was in Game 2, the story of the series thus far
is the struggling Shaquille O’Neal. Miami
went into Sunday’s matchup with the mandate
of getting the Big Aristotle more touches in the
paint. Instead, O’Neal was held to five
points on 2-for-5 shooting, and was an appalling
1-for-7 from the free-throw line to drop his playoff
percentage to 37.3. That’s brick-tastic,
even by Shaq standards (he was 47 percent from
the charity stripe during the regular season).
Unlike the Detroit Pistons
in the previous round, the Mavs are wisely double-teaming
O’Neal. Dwyane Wade hasn’t been able
to take advantage; his combined 17-for-44 shooting
from the field in the first two games (38.6 percent,
well below his usual 50 percent) suggests that
Wade has yet to shake off the effects of the sinus
infection that sent him to the hospital last week.
Worse, other than defensively challenged Antoine
Walker and his 37 points in this series, nobody
is stepping up to help shoulder the scoring burden.
At the other end of the floor,
Nowitzki had a field day Sunday. Miami’s
defensive combo of Udonis Haslem and James Posey
could not contain the 7-foot forward (although
Posey did do a nice job drawing several charges
against Dallas’ penetrating guards). Haslem
even came up with a strained left shoulder that
forced the Miami native to take himself out of
the game with 22 minutes remaining – adding
insult to injury for one of the toughest players
in the NBA.
Haslem is expected to remain
in the starting lineup for Tuesday’s Game
3. But the Heat’s problems with guarding
Nowitzki pale in comparison to their ineffectiveness
at the perimeter. Dallas hit open jumpers all
day long Sunday, drilling 8 of 19 trey attempts.
Jerry Stackhouse was 4-for-5 from long range as
part of a 19-point performance. The Mavs’
ability to balance Nowitzki’s inside presence
with this offensive barrage from outside spells
potential doom for Miami.
But there is hope in
South Beach. The next three games are in Miami,
and there is plenty of room for the Heat to improve.
Wade should be in better shape physically –
and he’d better be, because it’s incumbent
on the superstar swingman to put this team on
his back like he did against Detroit. That’s
when O’Neal becomes truly dangerous. If
Wade can draw the Dallas defense, he’ll
finally be able to get O’Neal those open
touches Heat fans crave. Such a strategy might
not be enough to actually beat the Mavs if the
support players don’t show up, but it maximizes
Miami’s chances. It also makes the OVER
a tastier choice after the first two games easily
slid UNDER the posted total. That total drops
a shade from 189 in Game 2 to 188 in Game 3.

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Posted on Tuesday, June 13, 2006 @ 10:11:21
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