Final Four Basketball Handicapping

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Figuring Out The Final Four
by Shawn Sillinger

Indianapolis knows a thing or two about favorites failing to reach the title game – which makes it the ideal host for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament championships.

For the first time since 1980, none of the regional No. 1 seeds has made the Final Four. The Duke Blue Devils were knocked out in the Sweet 16; this past weekend, they were joined on the sidelines by the Memphis Tigers, the Villanova Wildcats and the Connecticut Huskies. Now that everyone’s bracket has been put through the shredder, it’s time to delve a bit deeper and see why this fearsome foursome is alive and kicking in Indy.

The No. 11 George Mason Patriots are easily the Cinderella story of the tournament. Only one other time has a seed as high as No. 11 made it to the Final Four: the 1986 LSU Tigers. If you aren’t familiar with the Patriots, you haven’t been handicapping college basketball. They went 5-2 against the spread in non-conference action and 10-5-2 ATS during the regular season. The Pats were bounced early from the Colonial Athletic Association tourney, but they’ve come back to cash in against all four of their opponents at the big dance. It’s an impressive list of opponents, too: the Michigan State Spartans, the North Carolina Tar Heels, the Missouri Valley Conference champion Wichita State Shockers, and the previous favorites to win it all, the Connecticut Huskies.

The Pats have exposed other teams’ weaknesses with team defense and balanced scoring. The glass slipper may be on the other foot once they reach Indy, because George Mason has a date with the No. 3 Florida Gators. They also distribute the ball and smother opposing offenses, but the Gators have something you can’t teach: height, in the form of 6-foot-11 Joakim Noah and 6-foot-9 Al Horford. Both men are taller than everyone on the George Mason roster. The Pats won’t be rattled, especially after knocking down the tall trees from UConn, but Florida destroyed a similarly smaller club in Villanova to reach the Final Four. George Mason will have to keep its hot scoring touch (9-for-18 from downtown versus the Huskies) to get past this improving Gators club, which has won nine straight (6-2-1 ATS) and, like the Pats, has cashed in four times in a row at the big dance.

The No. 4 Tigers hadn’t been to the Final Four since their amazing run 20 years ago, but they’re back now. Like their Southeastern Conference brethren from Gainesville, the boys from Baton Rouge are a young team on the rise, led by beefy Glen “Big Baby” Davis on the inside and freakishly athletic forward Tyrus Thomas. Unlike Florida, the most accurate club in the nation at 50.4 percent from the field, LSU is not blessed with a soft shooting touch (46.9 percent). The Tigers rely on defense to get to the pay window – all four of their tournament games went under, with LSU going 3-1 ATS along the way to improve to 6-4 ATS in their past 10 games.

Judging by the way the No. 2 UCLA Bruins have been playing, LSU’s under streak is in good shape to reach five. The Bruins are the hottest team left in the tournament, winners of 11 straight (9-2 ATS) and keeping the final score below the posted total in three of four matchups at the big dance. Their 50-45 win over the No. 1 Memphis Tigers was a revelation in ugly basketball: the Tigers were held to just 2-for-17 from 3-point range, and top scorer Rodney Carney managed just five points on 2-for-12 from the field. Playing in front of a friendly crowd in Oakland may also have given the weary Bruins a boost. They’ll have plenty of time to rest up before Saturday’s semifinal action. UCLA shares the nightcap with LSU at 8:47 p.m. Eastern Time, following the Patriots and Gators at 6:07 p.m. Eastern.

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