2005/06 NCAA Championship

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2005-06 NCAA Basketball Championship Preview - Gators vs. Bruins
by Shawn Sillinger

Oil and water don’t mix. Neither did Nick and Jessica. That’s how ugly things are likely to get Monday night when the No. 3 Florida Gators meet the No. 2 UCLA Bruins to determine the 2005-06 NCAA men’s basketball Division I champions.

As they have all season long, both the Gators and the Bruins are putting on awesome defensive displays during this year’s tourney. UCLA’s noose has been especially constricting. The Bruins held the Memphis Tigers and the LSU Tigers to 45 points apiece to advance to the title game, taking the “under” to the pay window both times. That’s six unders in eight postseason games (including the Pacific-10 tourney) and a wallet-filling 22-12 mark on the year. Florida is just a shade behind at 20-10 after skimming below the posted total in each of the last six contests.

The question going into Monday night is what will happen when these two defensive juggernauts clash? Florida has proven itself capable of beating smaller, jump shot-minded lineups like Villanova and George Mason, holding them to a combined 6-for-34 from beyond the arc. The Gators had a little more trouble handling the beefier Georgetown Hoyas in the Sweet 16. The Hoyas outrebounded Florida 31-27, but their woeful 5-for-21 performance from long range helped the Gators eke out a 57-53 win as 2 ½-point favorites.

UCLA is a lot closer to Georgetown in its physical makeup, balancing its outside game with the post play of 7-foot center Ryan Hollins and 6-foot-7 forward Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. Although both players could stand to hit the weights, they were able to limit LSU behemoth Glen “Big Baby” Davis (6-foot-9, 310 pounds) to 14 points and seven rebounds in Saturday’s 59-45 shellacking.

Florida, like LSU, represents the Southeastern Conference with youth and a solid inside presence, namely 6-foot-11 center Joakim Noah and 6-foot-9 forward Al Horford. However, the Gators are more well-rounded offensively than the Tigers. Florida connects on 39.4 percent of its trey attempts, good for 14th place in the nation. Saturday’s win over George Mason was cemented when guard Lee Humphrey hit three consecutive 3-pointers to start the second half, extending Florida’s lead from five to 12 points. The Gators finished the night at 12-for-25 from the land beyond in a convincing 73-58 drubbing of the Cinderella Patriots. Conversely, LSU was a limp 0-for-6 from the perimeter against the Bruins.

UCLA’s success thus far has been predicated on slowing down the tempo of the game when the opponent has the ball, favoring halfcourt sets. But that doesn’t mean the Bruins are slow of foot. Their speed on defense allows them to double-team in the post, and when they grab the rebound or create a turnover, they burn down the court in transition. The Bruins were thus able to escape Gonzaga 73-71 in the Oakland semifinals despite being outplayed for the first 35 minutes of the game.

The general consensus is that we’re in for a humdinger Monday night. The Gators are favored by a slim 1 ½ points, or –120 on the moneyline. The total is just 127 ½, which would be the lowest total Florida has seen all season, but par for the course as far as the Bruins are concerned. There isn’t much to choose from between Florida and UCLA when it comes to their success against the spread: the Gators went 20-11-1 ATS this season, the Bruins 22-12. Also, both teams have excelled in neutral site contests, going a combined 20-1 straight up and 15-5-1 ATS. Playing at the RCA Dome in Indianapolis shouldn’t benefit either club.

On paper, the Gators deserve their status as slim favorites when Monday night rolls around. They have the nation’s best offense (50.2 percent field-goal efficiency), they’re balanced at both ends of the floor, and they come from arguably the tougher conference. On the other hand, UCLA has two seniors in the starting rotation compared to zero for the Gators, and the Bruins played a much tougher non-conference schedule (Memphis, Nevada, Michigan). Whoever cuts the nets down at the end of the game will probably look more like a survivor than a winner.

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