NCAA TOURNAMENT SLEEPER TEAMS

NCAA Tournament Report By: Christopher Harris
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March Madness Sleeper Teams To Watch!

When March Madness rolls around, the key to cashing in is not figuring out if Duke can beat Elon University by 45 points in the first round or not. The key is finding the sleeper teams that are undervalued against the number that can pull of the upset and make a run in the Tournament. We have isolated 5 teams here that we believe will be under valued for one reason or another but who can make a serious splash come March. We will break down these 5 tradition rich teams who will not be given the respect they deserve come tourney time who will be looking to make their marks.

Sleeper Team #1 - Michigan State Spartans

After high expectations of being the favorite to win the Big Ten title the Spartans have greatly under achieved. A poor 2-5 road record in conference play has left the Saprtans on the outside looking in for the Big Ten title. When focusing on their against the number performance things don’t get much better as they are a very mediocre 10-12 ATS and 3-6 ATS away from the Breslin Center in East Lansing. Their struggles of late (3-3 in their last 6) and their poor showing in the Maui Invitational which began with a loss in Hawaii, even though it wasn’t part of the tournament, all leads to a less than favorable seeding in the tourney and no love from the odds makers as they will be undervalued.

This all works out fine for Spartan backers as the Spartans are notorious over achievers when it comes to the NCCAA Tournament. MSU head coach Tom Izzo is a master of having his teams play tough schedules even at the expense of a better record in order to prepare them for the tournament as 4 Final Fours and a National Title in the past 7 years can attest. This Spartan team has the same make up as previous successful teams that Tom Izzo has put together. They have the athletic wings who can both shoot in Shannon Brown and Maurice Ager, one of the most dominant big men in the country in Paul Davis, just ask Duke’s Sheldon Williams, and the roll players in Matt Trannon and Marquise Gray who will do the dirty work and crash the boards. This is all put together by PG Drew Neitzel who has improved greatly and plays mistake free ball. When all is said and done, we would not be surprised to see the Spartans back in the Final Four and grab a ton of cash on the way.

Sleeper Team #2 - North Carolina Tar Heels

After losing their top 7 players from their national championship team, expectations were extremely low coming into this season as they would be playing primarily with freshman and a few returnees who barely saw the floor a year ago. This young Carolina team most likely has a couple more losses in store plus the ACC Tournament which will be tough for them as it will be the first major tournament for these players whether they were on the team last year or not. The selection committee will be hesitant to seed the youngsters from Chapel Hill too high while the odds makers will under value them as youth tends to make way for more experienced teams come tourney time. Although we don’t see this team repeating as national champs, at least this year, we do see them causing some real damage and making some cash on the way to a Sweet 16 or Elite 8 run.

Roy Williams will be the coach of the year as he has these kids believing they can win any game they play. Playing in the ACC Tournament will get those 1st tournament jitters out of the way and by the time the NCAA Tournament starts, they won’t be playing like freshman any more. The Tar Heels have been remarkable against the number this season posting a 13-6 record ATS and a very impressive 5-2 mark ARS on the road. They have proven they can win away from the Dean Dome posting W’s at Kentucky, Florida State, Maryland, and Miami. They have the solid guard play and a dominating big man in Tyler Hansbrough which is the blue print for a successful run in the NCAA’s. This team will D up and keep taking the money with them from round to round.

Sleeper Team #3 - Kentucky Wildcats

This is a down year for the Wildcats as Tennessee and Florida have run away with the SEC. The Wildcats have struggled mightily against the number with an 8-12 record ATS and a horrible 1-7 record ATS at home. Posting two separate 3 game losing streaks in the past month and a half will have the selection committee reluctant to seed this storied program too high and their horrid number ATS will have them under valued by the odds makers come tourney time. The one mark that stands in their favor and may show some indication of the Wildcats success in the NCCAA Tournament is their 5-2 record ATS when away from their home court. Their line up is a dangerous one for the opposition as they have a deadly 3 point shooter in Patrick Sparks and a dominating point guard in Rajon Rando.

In addition to their dominating back court, the emergence of forward Joe Crawford gives the Wildcats the mis-match advantage needed in the tourney as he can play big or small. Most of the struggles the Wildcats have endured has been the result of their lack of an inside presence. That problem has been solved with the return of Randolph Morris. Kentucky has still struggled since he came back but keep in mind that he is still getting his form back and getting into basketball shape while his opponents are in mid-season form. However, by the time the SEC tournament is complete and the NCAA Tournament is ready to begin, Morris will be in mid-season form and ready to show everyone how good he can be. The odds makers will make a big mistake under valuing this club as Morris will dominate and take away extra defenders away from the perimeter so that Rondo and Sparks can get their shots. Tubby Smith is a great tournament coach who will have his team ready make a run. No matter how far they make it, the Wildcats will grab plenty of cash before heading home.

Sleeper Team #4 - Kansas Jay Hawks

The Kansas Jay Hawks fall into the same category as the North Carolina Tar Heels. Kansas relies very heavily on freshman and they have been criticized by the public and slighted by the odds makers all season long. These freshman have grown up very fast and answered those challenges as they have a very solid 13-8 record ATS and a remarkable 5-1 mark ATS on the road which is exceptional for any team, let alone a freshman heavy squad.

This team has been inconsistent all year beating some very good teams but then turning around and losing to teams that they have no business losing to, like Kansas State, Nevada, and St. Josephs, all in front of their home fans. Those bad losses weigh heavily when the selection committee sets the seeding and keep odds makers gun shy when setting their line. This is in addition to the youth factor which also causes odds makers to shy away and fade this team just as they will North Carolina since traditionally, experience outweighs talented youth. This will be a mistake on their part and we will take advantage and cash in as these freshmen have come together and are playing great ball as of late winning their last 8 games in a row SU and posting a 7-1 record ATS over that span. They posses the talented youth in Brandon Rush and company but also have 2 big men in Christian Moody and Sasha Kaun who could be a nightmare for teams come tournament time.

As things are falling right now, these 4 teams could bring in a ton of cash and cause a lot of trouble for some of the higher ranked teams. Obviously things can change if one of these teams run the table and their conference tournament but these teams are on this list because we do not expect that from any of them. When March Madness comes around, keep these teams in mind and jump on them early and often as this will produce a lucrative tournament experience for you.