NBA PLAYOFF BETTING ODDS

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NBA PLAYOFF ODDS: Making the Trend Your Friend

Just because the Suns have played well on Thursday doesn't make them a good bet

May 4, 2006

By Jason Brough
BodogNation Contributing Writer

One of the best indicators sports bettors have at their disposal is the trend. A trend can show you everything from how well a team is playing to what strategies they're employing to achieve success (or failure). However, a trend is only valuable if there are legitimate reasons behind it. Many bettors fail to grasp this concept.

The above in mind, let's review a few trends for Thursday night's game between the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers. By breaking them down and backtracking through the games that produced them, it's possible to determine how relevant they really are.

Hopefully, your first reaction to this is, who cares?

This comes down to common sense: Do you really think Phoenix gets up for games just because it's a certain day of the week? Of course not. It's coincidence and nothing more.

Let's move on.

The idea of charting a team's performance after a certain amount of time off has merit, especially for a team like Phoenix that plays a high-tempo style.

A player like Shawn Marion, who is up and down the court all day long, is going to get tired if he's not getting enough time to recuperate. Proof of this: In the regular season, he averaged 2.3 more points on two days' rest versus one day off.

So far in the postseason, Marion has played 42.8 minutes per game, is second in scoring for the Suns with 18.6 points per game and leads the team in rebounds (8.8 per game) as well as blocks (1.0 per game). That's a lot of work at both ends of the hardwood for one player. Playing as an undersized (6-7) power forward and having to guard Lamar Odom also takes a physical toll.

The Suns appear to be holding up well in their last few games with a single day of rest, but remember that attrition takes time.

Oh, and by the way, the Lakers are 8-2-1 against the spread in their last 11 games playing on one day of rest, so this one looks like a wash.

This is a classic example of a useless trend.

Looking back, the first game of the 13 was on May 27, 2004. It was a 92-85 victory at home for the Lakers over the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference finals. (Los Angeles failed to cover the 8-point spread.)

Curious about who led the Lakers in rebounds that night? It was Shaquille O'Neal with 18.

What about assists? It was Karl Malone with eight.

The point is, the Lakers' team from two years ago is involved in eight of the 13 playoff games alluded to in this trend. This year's group is vastly different.

Phil Jackson must like this trend. It shows his team is bouncing back defensively after off nights.

The last game that contributed to the trend was Game 2 of the series against the Suns, a 99-93 victory on the road in Phoenix (after losing 107-102 in Game 1).

"I thought defensively it was our night, and that was the best thing about it," Jackson told the Associated Press following the game.

In their loss on Tuesday night, Los Angeles allowed 114 points - the most it's surrendered since a March 14 loss at Sacramento. Oddly enough, for under and Lakers' backers that 114-97 setback could be a good sign.

This appears to be a great trend, namely because all eight games happened in 2006. In other words, if the same two teams keep going under the total, why would a different result be expected in the next game?

The thing is, while the teams and results have been the same, the actual totals have been very different.

The far-right column shows how totals have trended sharply downward since the teams' second meeting of the year. Thus, while Tuesday's game went over the total of 205.5, the same result (211 points scored) would actually have hit the under in the first five games.

Given the over finally hit on Tuesday, have linesmakers over-adjusted? Well, a total as low as 204 would still have been good for the under in six of the eight games, so the adjustment appears in line, if not still erring on the high side.

When using trends in your handicapping, be sure to review the story you think is being told and you might find a few discrepancies in the plot.

 

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