MINNEAPOLIS REGION PREVIEW

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MINNEAPOLIS REGION: It's a Tough Road

Villanova's four-guard set may face challenges from Boston College, Ohio State and others in this loaded region

March 14, 2006

By Mike Halford
BodogNation Contributing Writer

Minneapolis: a virtual landmine.

That's what many pundits have dubbed the region, arguably the toughest in the tourney. Boston College being a No. 4 seed in this region shows the toughness of this side of the bracket. BC was the runner-up in the ACC tournament. The No. 2 seed, Ohio State, was the Big Ten regular-season champ. Florida, the No. 3 seed, was the SEC tournament champ. Throw in solid programs like Oklahoma, Arizona, Wisconsin and Georgetown, and you've got a recipe for fireworks. The region also holds the underdog card as well - No. 5 Nevada, the WAC champion with a massive early-season victory over Kansas to its credit.

CONTENDERS
No. 1 Villanova Wildcats (25-4, 14-2 Big East)
The big question facing the Wildcats? The health of Allan Ray. After suffering an eye injury courtesy of an inadvertent Carl Krauser eye poke in the Big East semifinal, Ray has been cleared to play in the NCAA tourney. But how effective will he be?

Regardless of the Ray injury, the Wilcats still remain the team to beat in Minny. The mantra for the region should be "it ain't 'ova till it's Nova" - any team with Final Four aspirations will almost certainly have to go through Jay Wright's men. With all four guards - Ray, Foye, Mike Nardi and Kyle Lowry - averaging over 11 points per game, the scoring is balanced and the tempo is high. They're a team that likes to score. 'Nova has hit the over in 58 percent of its contests, and has posted an impressive 11.6-point margin of victory. The Wildcats' ability to blow out the opposition does hamper them in the ATS column; often facing massive spreads this season, the Wildcats were a mediocre 13-12 (52 percent) against the spread.

No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (25-5, 12-4 Big Ten)
Terence Dials. Terence Dials. Terence Dials.

It's a name worth mentioning again and again. The 6-9 senior is probably the most dominant big man in the region, and will be a matchup nightmare for all comers in Minneapolis. The Big Ten Player of the Year averaged 15 points and eight rebounds this year; he's joined by a veteran squad that features four seniors in its regular rotation. The Buckeyes rely on Dials for almost all their interior presence, and use accurate three-point shooting from guards Je'Kel Foster, Jamar Butler and J.J. Sullinger to make teams pay for collapsing on Dials in the paint. That three-point accuracy - Ohio State shoots better than 36 percent from behind the line - has many thinking that they could be this year's West Virginia, a team that catches fire from behind the arc.

Despite being the highest-scoring team in the Big Ten, the Buckeyes are hitting the under in 56 percent of their games. They're still a safe bet ATS, going 13-11-1 this year against the line. An experienced team with a strong inside-outside combo, they're a sneaky pick for an April appearance in Indianapolis.

No. 4 Boston College Eagles (26-7, 11-5 ACC)
One of the stunners on Selection Sunday was watching BC fall to a four seed. Many assumed a third-place finish in the ACC standings and an appearance in the conference tourney final would propel Al Skinner's men to a loftier status.

Beware the jaded program - BC could easily use this seeding as a sign of disrespect. They're another veteran squad, led by senior forward Craig Smith. Smith will leave Chestnut Hill as one of the best players in Boston College history - he's a banger in the Sean May mold who averaged 17.3 points and 8.9 rebounds this season. The Eagles come into the tourney en fuego, winning eight of their final nine regular-season games to finish in sole possession of third place in the ACC - and their run through the postseason tourney was equally impressive.

BC was an impressive 16-12 ATS this season. The Eagles also hit the over an eye-popping 63 percent of the time. The issue dogging them, however, will be their inability to perform on the big stage. Last year, BC was a massive March disappointment. The Eagles handled Penn in Round 1 but fell to Wisconsin-Milwaukee in the second round.

SLEEPERS
No. 5 Nevada Wolfpack (27-5, 13-3 WAC)
The Wolfpack made some noise a year ago, knocking off the Texas Longhorns in a first-round mini-upset. That win brought national attention to 6-11 forward Nick Fazekas, the 2006 WAC MVP who has truly emerged in this, his junior season. Fazekas has lived up to the hype - the center directed Nevada to a Top 25 finish and regular-season WAC championship. He averaged 22 points and 10 rebounds.

In terms of against the spread and total statistics, Nevada is one of the most consistent teams on the board. The Wolfpack has gone 14-14 ATS and 14-13-1 over/under/push this season. Bettors better beware - while the Wolfpack are a trendy sleeper pick, they're a one-trick pony with Fazekas dominating the offense. Don't believe? Check the scoring distribution. Only one other starter - Marcelus Kemp - averages double figures in points.

No. 10 Northern Iowa Panthers (23-9, 11-7 MVC)
The Panthers, a favorite amongst the mid-major boosters across the country, come into the Minneapolis Region as a real threat to some of the big-time programs (beware, Georgetown). Led by senior scoring sensation Ben Jacobson (14.2 ppg, 3.9 rpg), the Panthers have recorded notable victories this season against LSU (in Baton Rouge, La.), Bucknell, and Big Ten tournament champ Iowa.

Northern Iowa is a methodical, low-tempo team that relies on Jacobson to score. The Panthers have gone under in more than 65 percent of their games (9-19 O/U) and struggle when engaged in high-octane, shoot-em-out contests. Bettors can benefit from this style of play, though. The Panthers like to milk the clock and run off multiple screens, and game scores often stay close. They're 15-12-1 ATS this season, but have a meager 8.2-point margin in victory, one of the lowest in the tourney.

No. 9 Wisconsin Badgers (19-11, 9-7 Big Ten)
Every March, the Badgers arrive with their methodical, 10-passes-before-you-shoot mentality, which drives the opposition nuts. And every March, the Badgers make some noise against favored foes.

Last year, Wisconsin came within a game of the Final Four, losing to eventual champion North Carolina. The Badgers will live and die with the offensive output of athletic swingman Alandro Tucker (19.0 ppg, 5.8 rpg), and the shooting prowess of his running mates. They've been inconsistent all season away from Madison, evident by their 12-16 record ATS. But they've got a veteran tournament coach in Bo Ryan, who is 7-4 in March, good for a .636 winning percentage. Keep them in mind, especially as a second-round sleeper vs. Villanova.

PRETENDERS
No. 8 Arizona Wildcats (19-12, 11-7 Pac-10)
It's been a trying season for Lute Olson and his Wildcats. A disastrous fourth-place finish in the Pac-10 was compounded with a poor showing in the postseason tourney. The kicker? All-world swingman Hassan Adams, a preseason Naismith Award candidate, was arrested for DUI the weekend prior to the Pac-10 tourney. While Adams will be available for March Madness, this is a team that has been crippled by personnel issues all season.

Senior guard Chris Rodgers was suspended from the team and later reinstated; sophomore guard Jawann McClellan was academically ineligible during the fall and had season-ending wrist surgery in January. While they're a talented team, the Wildcats still fall into the trap of being a favorite that fails to deliver. Arizona posted an abysmal 11-20 ATS mark and might be too far off track to pull it together for a memorable March run.

No. 13 Pacific Tigers (24-7, 12-2 Big West)
The Tigers have been a trendy pick over the last two tourneys, registering upset victories over the likes of Pittsburgh and Providence en route to second-round appearances. But the clock may have struck midnight for this perennial Cinderella, as the Tigers face a white-hot BC team in the opening round.

People will point to the fact that they've lost many key components from the previous two seasons, but that won't be Pacific's downfall. They're still a veteran-laden team, starting three seniors and two juniors. The problem is their lack of depth; after the starting five, the team only has a two-man freshman rotation off the bench. The Tigers lean heavily on Christan Maraker, the Big West POY who will have his hands full with Smith in the opening round.

While they might be a dicey choice for a SU win in round one, keep the Tigers in mind for a possible cover. They've got a great ATS record this season (16-9-1) and that bodes well for their game vs. BC.

PHOTO: Craig Smith is a physical post presence for ACC tournament runner-up Boston College (AI Wire photo).

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