MINNEAPOLIS REGION FINAL FOUR PREVIEW

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MINNEAPOLIS REGION FINAL FOUR: Contenders Must Answer Hard Questions

No clear-cut favorite, but talented teams and players remain on this difficult road

March 21,2006

By Mike Halford
BodogNation Contributing Writer

And then, there were four.

After the opening two rounds of March Madness, everything went according to plan in the Minneapolis Region - for the most part:

* No. 1 seed Villanova defeated Monmouth and Arizona in solid, if unspectacular, fashion.
* No. 3 seed Florida posted a 24-point average margin of victory in landslide wins over Southern Alabama and Wisconsin-Milwaukee.
* No. 4 seed Boston College survived a double-OT thriller against Pacific, then bullied the Grizzlies of Montana for a berth in the Sweet 16.

Only the Ohio State Buckeyes failed to hold up their end of the bargain. The No. 2 seed and Big Ten regular-season champion had a disappointing tourney, barely scraping by No. 15 Davidson in the first round before being ousted by upstart Georgetown in the Round of 32.

And what about them Hoyas? It's been a return to glory for a storied program that hasn't reached the Sweet 16 in five years. Towering 7-2 center Roy Hibbert, a sophomore manchild, has evoked comparisons to legendary Hoya pivots Patrick Ewing, Dikembe Mutombo and Alonzo Mourning with his play.

Could we see an all-Big East matchup in the Elite Eight? Or will the SEC and ACC do the business? BodogNation takes you inside the matchups:

This game features two of the most intriguing sophomore big men in the tourney: Hibbert and 6-11 Gators' phenom Joakim Noah.

Talk about stepping up on the national showcase. Check the increase in numbers for both from the regular season to the tourney:

Hibbert:

* Regular Season: PPG 11.6 | BPG 1.6 | RPG 6.9
* NCAA Tourney: PPG 18.5 | BPG 2.0 | RPG 11.5

Noah:

* Regular Season: PPG 13.9 | APG 2.1 | RPG 6.7
* NCAA Tourney: PPG 16.5 | APG 6.5 | RPG 7.5

Despite the similarities in age, size and position, the two big men couldn't be more different. Noah, the son of former tennis star and 1983 French Open champion Yannick Noah, is freakishly athletic for his size, can run the floor like a small forward and is a constant threat in the transition game. His passing ability has caught the eye of several NBA scouts. He's nearly tripled his assist output this tourney, which has pundits proclaiming Noah to be the most versatile big man in the college game.

Hibbert, meanwhile, is more of a classic big. He does most of his damage in the halfcourt, with his back to the basket. He's got an array of solid post moves and simply tore apart a physical Buckeyes' frontcourt in the second round. At 283 pounds, Hibbert has three inches and nearly 60 pounds on Noah, which could be trouble should Florida stay in man-to-man for extended periods.

As these big men go, so go their respective squads. Georgetown, having survived a grueling Big East regular season, prides itself on stifling defense (the Hoyas were the only Big East team to hold opponents under 60 points per game this year) and a methodical, halfcourt offense that relies heavily on back-door cuts. The Hoyas were one of the lowest-scoring teams (66.4 ppg) in the conference and hit the under in 64.3 percent of their contests this season.

Florida, meanwhile, can score with the best of them. The Gators are loaded with guys who can fill it, including five players - Noah, Taurean Green, Corey Brewer, Al Horford and Lee Humphrey - who posted double figures in points this year. Averaging 79.3 points per game, the Gators are one of the highest-scoring outfits left in the tourney; and to top it off, they're a bettor's dream. They've covered five of their last seven, including two blowout March Madness wins. To date, they're 18-11 against the spread.

To be successful, Georgetown needs production from its backcourt. Only one Hoyas guard - senior PG Ashanti Cook - averages double figures in points. Can he and his running mates keep pace with the explosive Florida backcourt? Can Hibbert defeat Noah in the battle of promising bigs?

A classic inside vs. outside battle as the perimeter-oriented Wildcats take on the post-heavy Eagles. It's speed against strength as quicksilver guards Randy Foye and Allan Ray will look to outshine B.C. bruisers Craig Smith and Jared Dudley for a berth in the Elite Eight.

This game is all about taking advantage of the opposition's weaknesses. Foye and Ray will look to harass B.C. point guard Louis Hinnant all afternoon. If the early rounds have shown us anything, it's that 'Nova is downright lethal converting turnovers into points, especially around the perimeter. Hinnant is a solid (and senior) ballhandler, but has yet to face anything resembling the deadly speed and athleticism of the Villanova backcourt. He's going to have one primary goal in this contest: Do not turn the game into a track meet. BC stands a far better chance of winning the game if the score stays in the low-to-mid 60s.

Conversely, BC will look to pound the ball to Smith and Dudley, and abuse the 'Nova frontcourt. Head coach Al Skinner will force opposing bigs Will Sheridan and Dante Cunningham to play interior defense - this could create some foul trouble, which the paper-thin Wildcats' frontcourt is not prepared to deal with. The question remains: can any single 'Nova forward handle Smith? He seems to be peaking - against Montana, he led his club in points (22), rebounds (16) and assists (4). Expect to see a lot of 2-3 zone from the 'Cats, forcing B.C. to do most of its damage from the outside.

An interesting statistic to consider: B.C. is 5-0 ATS in its last five games; this includes the 12-point, double-OT victory over Pacific after coming in as an 8-point favorite. Villanova, meanwhile, has struggled to eclipse the lofty lines set in its first two March Madness contests. Jay Wright's men had a remarkably tough time putting away Monmouth in the first round, winning a 58-45 slugfest in a game where they entered as 20-point favorites. Against Arizona, 'Nova came in as 7-point favorites, but needed some clutch free-throw shooting from Ray down the stretch to secure a not-as-comfortable-as-it-looks victory. In their last five contests, the Wildcats have only covered the spread twice.

But do the Eagles have the perimeter defense to stop Ray? Do the Wildcats have the requisite beef up front to neutralize Smith?

The question period is over. On Friday, we'll have the answers.

PHOTO: Florida's Joakim Noah, whose dad starred on another kind of court, has the makings of a dominant collegiate big man (AI Wire photo).

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