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ATLANTA REGION: Duke Is Up

With Redick and Williams, Blue Devils bring plenty of momentum into tourney

March 13, 2006

By Carlisle Richards
BodogNation Contributing Writer

The Atlanta Region may not have the top-to-bottom competition of the Minneapolis and Washington, D.C. regions, but what Atlanta teams lack in individual talent they make up for in team momentum.

With Syracuse, Texas A&M and Iowa catching fire in their respective conferences, No. 1 seed Duke and No. 2 seed Texas are not sure shots to pound through the Atlanta Region and reach the NCAA Tournament’s Elite Eight. To get a good look at who can pass or bomb the test that is the Hot-lanta Bracket, let’s kick some Bracketology to find the region’s Contenders, Sleepers and Pretenders:

CONTENDERS
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils (30-3, ACC)
Hate ’em or love ’em, the Blue Devils are still on top. J.J. Redick dusted off a nagging knee injury to put on a three-point show in the ACC final against Boston College (Redick scored 26 points and Duke won 78-76). With that, the Blue Devils got over their disappointing regular-season finish (Duke lost at Florida State and against North Carolina) and won their seventh ACC championship in eight years.

What Duke seems to lack in ability to consistently cover the spread (13-17 ATS with only one cover in its last six games), it makes up for in straight-up victories. The Blue Devils have a knack for pulling out a win whenever a game is on the line, as attested by their 7-2 record in games decided by five points or less.

With only three losses, a strong showing in the ACC tournament, and the likes of Redick and Shelden Williams, Duke is still a no-brainer No. 1 seed and definite favorite in the Atlanta bracket.

No. 2 Texas Longhorns (27-6, Big 12)
Yes, their game seems to have gone M.I.A. leading up to the NCAA Tournament, with losses to Kansas in the Big 12 final (80-68 as three-point favorites on Sunday) and No. 12 seed Texas A&M in the regular season (46-43 as six-point favorites on March 3). But the Longhorns have the balance needed to get to the Final Four.

They have a superstar frontcourt with forwards LaMarcus Aldridge and P.J. Tucker, who combine for 31.2 points and 18.1 rebounds, and a solid backcourt of Daniel Gibson and Kenton Paulino, who combine to average 23.7 points per game. And although the Longhorns’ slump has affected their ATS record (they’ve covered only three of their last 10 games), they are more than capable of taking the bottom half of the Atlanta Bracket.

No. 5 Syracuse Orange (23-11, Big East)
Momentum is the key ingredient when you’re trying to cook up a championship formula heading into March Madness, and no team has more heading into the NCAA than the Orange. Syracuse took over the deep and competitive Big East championship tournament by knocking off No. 1 Connecticut in the quarterfinals. The Orange went on to oust Georgetown and beat Pittsburgh to bring home the Big East gold.

Orange senior guard Gerry McNamara’s ability to play every game like it’s his last has given the team a swagger reminiscent of their magical 2003 national championship season. The newfound confidence has them ready to put their four-game winning streak and 3-0-1 ATS record against first-round opponent Texas A&M. They get by the Aggies, and Duke or Texas may be their only remaining challenge on the Road to the Final Four.

SLEEPERS
No. 4 LSU Tigers (23-8, SEC)
The Tigers were written off after they were dismantled 81-65 by Florida in the SEC tournament semifinals; the Tigers were 1-point dogs in that one. Despite the setback, they’ve had a strong regular season and should garner tourney attention.

The Tigers owned the SEC with a 14-2 record and took out West Virginia at West Virginia on Nov. 26 (LSU won 71-68 in OT as a 5-point dog). And despite a terrible ATS record of 3-7 in their last 10 games, the Tigers have won eight of their last 10 straight up.

No. 12 Texas A&M Aggies (21-8, Big 12)
After 19 years of watching the NCAA Tournament on television, the Aggies can finally participate in the Madness. The Aggies’ promising 8-2 SU and 8-2 ATS records in their last 10 games seems to be overshadowed by the reality that they are playing the blazing hot Syracuse Orange in the first round. Before falling short against Texas 74-70 in the Big 12 tournament semifinals, the Aggies were cruising with an eight-game winning streak. If they continue their solid play they are more than capable of getting by Syracuse. In the second round, they could face No. 2 seed Texas, a team the Aggies have beaten.

No. 3 Iowa Hawkeyes (25-8, Big 10)
Keep an eye on the Hawkeyes they won’t be sleepers for long.

If people didn’t already recognize it, they now know that Iowa has a squad talented enough to make some noise in the NCAA. The Hawkeyes have won and covered five games in a row, including a Big 10 title contest against the Ohio State Buckeyes (Iowa won 67-60 as 2.5-point underdogs).

With conference championship in hand, the Hawkeyes have found the spark to put together a NCAA title run. And with outmatched opponent Northwestern State in the first round and the unreliable West Virginia Mountaineers likely in the second, the Hawkeyes can make an unexpected jump up the Atlanta bracket.

PRETENDERS
No. 8 George Washington Colonials (26-2, Atlantic 10)
After ripping through their Atlantic 10 and tying a school record with 19 weeks in the AP Top 25 (a feat that hasn’t been matched since their 1954-55 season), all signs point to the Colonials’ season coming to an early end.

The Colonials are entering the tourney missing their meal-ticket, bruising 6-9 forward Pops Mensah-Bonsu. The All-Conference fab freshman had been the legs to the Colonoials’ march through the regular season with averages of 13.1 points and 7.1 rebounds, but an injury on Feb. 23 has put Mensah-Bonsu on the sidelines.

Without him they’ve been struggling. Teams they dominated early in the season like Charlotte (Colonials won 83-69 on Jan. 21 in a pick’em game) and Temple (Colonials won 72-60 on Jan. 4 as 2-point underdogs), became tough opponents down the stretch. The Colonials needed overtime to beat Charlotte 86-85 on March 4 as 8-point favorites and they lost to Temple 68-53 as 3-point favorites. Night-and-day performances like that leave a lot of doubt with the 25-7 UNC-Wilmington looking to make an opening-round statement in the tournament.

No. 6 West Virginia Mountaineers (20-10, Big East)
Not a good sign when the best thing you have going for you is a catchy name. Center Kevin Pittsnogle and the Mountaineers’ amazing start came to an ugly close with only four wins and a record of 3-5-2 ATS in their last 10 games.

Victory isn’t guaranteed when they face Southern Illinois in the first round, a team that won the underrated Missouri Valley Conference. Even if they can get by the Salukis, the Mountaineers lack momentum, and look to be on the brink of an early exit.

PHOTO: Shelden Williams is a force inside for the No. 1 Blue Devils (AI Wire photo).

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