2006 FINAL FOUR GAMBLING

Articles From WagerOnHoops.com
ABOUT Bodog Nation - Frontlines - NCAA Tournament Wagering
A valuable resource for both novice and experienced gamblers alike, From the Frontlines offers an insider view into the day-to-day workings of the sportsbook industry. Open an account today over $20, and they'll reward you with a 20% cash bonus on your first deposit.

PLAIN AND SIMPLE. Our Sports Book Review rates Bodog.com as a top basketball betting sportsbook online.

2006 FINAL FOUR - MARCH MADNESS: How Low Can They Go?

There's good reason to believe one of Saturday's Final Four matchups will be a low-scoring affair

March 30, 2006

By Jason Brough
BodogNation Contributing Writer

Has that miniscule total for the UCLA-LSU game got your attention?

At 121, it's the lowest either team has seen in eight combined NCAA Tournament games. Add to the fact it opened as high as 123 at some sportsbooks - and then was subsequently bet down - and it seems a lot of people believe the Bruins and Tigers will continue their defensive ways on Saturday.

That belief is certainly no stretch in logic.

In the Bruins' four March Madness games, they've gone over the total just once. That was against Gonzaga, one of the best offensive and worst defensive teams in the nation. The Bruins' other three games produced an average of just 113.3 total points, a statistic accentuated by their 50-45 victory over Memphis, the lowest-scoring regional final since 1973.

Further testament to the success of UCLA's defense-first philosophy, Memphis isn't the only team the Bruins have held to less than 50 points during March Madness; Belmont scored just 44 in the opening round.

As for the LSU Tigers, they've gone under the total in all four of their NCAA Tournament games. Their defense gained national exposure by holding Duke to an 18-for-65 field-goal shooting performance (27.7 percent) in the Sweet 16.

In that game, Blue Devils guard J.J. Redick - one of the best shooters in college basketball history - went just 3-for-18 (16.7 percent) from the field and finished with 11 points, 16 below his season average.

Texas center LaMarcus Aldridge didn't do much better against LSU, going just 2-for-14 (14.3 percent) in the Elite Eight.

In fact, no team has shot better than 41.5 percent against LSU in the Tournament.

So now that we've established that both teams are pretty darn stingy, what do they need to do to put points on the board?

Starting with the Bruins, UCLA relies heavily on guards Jordan Farmar and Arron Afflalo to provide scoring, so those two will need to get freed up for open looks. However, Redick can certainly attest to the quickness of the Tigers' defense; getting good shots off figures to be a chore easier said than done for Farmar and Afflalo.

On the inside, the Bruins will have to figure out Tyrus Thomas. The 6-9 freshmen has notched 14 blocks in the Tournament, including five against Duke. Thus, Bruins 7-0 center Ryan Hollins, the Oakland Region's Most Outstanding Player, will have to figure in a big way on Saturday.

As an aside, while Hollins has been impressive for UCLA during March Madness, he was the poster boy for ineptitude from the free throw line against Memphis, going 2-11 (18 percent).

Granted, he wasn't alone on his team.

Last Saturday, the Bruins shot a pathetic 20-for-39 (51.3 percent) from the charity stripe, and they were even worse, 5-for-13 (38.5 percent), in their second-round contest against Alabama. The Bruins will have to shoot at or better than their season free-throw rate of 69 percent if they want to make the Tigers think twice about playing physical inside.

As for LSU, the Tigers' frontcourt - featuring 6-9, 310-pound Glen "Big Baby" Davis - will continue to be the offensive weapon of choice. However, in order for the Tigers to be effective in the paint, they'll also need to keep the perimeter in the back of UCLA's mind. In other words, if guard Darrel Mitchell doesn't improve his performance from his last two games (he shot a combined 8-for-26, 30.1 percent, against Duke and Texas) there's not much stopping the Bruins from collapsing down low, making it difficult for LSU's big men to gain both shooting and rebounding position.

One final note, remember that this game should be a close one, so overtime needs to be factored into the over/under betting equation. LSU's five-minute overtime period versus Texas produced a whopping 26 points. If that happens Saturday, over bettors might just snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

PHOTO: Senior guard Darrel Mitchell will likely have to give his frontcourt partners some support if LSU is to make it past UCLA (AI Wire photo).

For more valuable tournament information check out the March Madness 2006 Gambling Guide

CLICK HERE!! GRAB YOUR 10% SIGN UP BONUS FROM BODOG.COM

More Articles From Bodog