SWEET SIXTEEN HANDICAPPING

Sweet Sixteen Preview By: Matt Fargo
With over 12 years of sports handicapping experience, my analysis, information and expert picks give you what you want.... winners! I’m not here claiming to be undefeated over the last 10 years and I’m not going to fill your head with any useless inside information, because it doesn\\\'t exist. I do my homework plain and simple and come up with the plays that give us the best chance of winning. When you win, we win. You will see that our angles, statistical analysis and handicapping approaches will make you a consistent winner.

Sweet Sixteen - Statistically breaking down the Final 16 - We are down to the final 16 teams in the NCAA tournament and as always, there are a few surprises. Of the 16 teams remaining, 10 of those coincide with their seedings as we have all four numbers ones, two numbers twos, two numbers threes and two numbers fours still in the mix. Bradley, who was one of the last teams to be given an at-large bid, is the lowest remaining seed at number 13. George Mason is the only other team with a double-digit seeding that remains while the last four teams are seeded fifth through seventh.

Connecticut and Villanova are the two numbers ones that were taken to the final minutes in the second round while Duke and Memphis made it through with ease. The Big East leads the way with four teams remaining and of the top seven conferences, only the Big 10 is without a representative. All of the media experts who were up in arms about the Missouri Valley Conference receiving four bids can now wipe the egg off of their faces since that conference has two teams left, the same as the ACC, Pac Ten and SEC.

Schedule strength usually plays a big part in teams making it through since tough games tend to get teams more prepared this time of year. However, that has not been the case this year as only five teams remaining have schedules ranked in the top 25. Florida, Gonzaga, Washington, Memphis and George Mason all have strength of schedule rankings of 81st or worst while the average schedule strength of the remaining 16 teams in just 48.9.

Defense wins championships but don't tell that to Duke, West Virginia, Boston College, Gonzaga and Washington who are ranked 122nd or worse in shooting percentage defense. The Mountaineers are easily the worst of the bunch as they are allowing 45.4 percent shooting, 246th in the country. Connecticut, Texas, Memphis and George Mason are the best of the bunch with all being ranked in the top 10. The average defensive ranking of the final 16 teams is a lofty 73.6.

There is definitely more offensive talent remaining with five of the top 10 in the country still alive. Florida and Duke are one and two respectively with Boston College, George Mason and UCLA rounding out the bunch. Wichita St., West Virginia, Bradley and Villanova are all ranked 128th or worse and they are the only four teams with shooting percentages below 45 percent. The Mountaineers are the only team that has a shooting margin in the red. The average offensive shooting ranking is 57.

Successful free throw shooting in extremely important this time of year and some of the best free throw shooting teams remain. 12 of the 16 teams are hitting more than 70 percent from the charity stripe with LSU, Memphis, Boston College and George Mason being the only four teams falling below that mark. The Patriots are the worst as they are hitting a very pedestrian 66.8 percent from the line. Gonzaga is the best remaining team as the Bulldogs are shooting a solid 78.3 percent, third in the country.

Rebounding is something that is often overlooked but it is once again playing a huge role in the success of the winners. Eight of the top 18 teams in rebounding margin are still playing with Connecticut, Texas, LSU and Memphis all ranked in the top 10. 14 of the 16 teams are all ranked in the top 100 in rebounding margin with Duke and West Virginia being the only two on the outside and way on the outside as a matter of fact. Duke is 250th while West Virginia is one of the worst in the country at 327th.

West Virginia makes up for its shooting offense and defense and rebounding by bringing in the best assist/turnover ratio of the group. The Mountaineers have a ratio of 2.082 which is by far the best. Boston College is second with a ratio of 1.341 showing just how big the gap really is. 14 of the 16 teams have a ratio better than breakeven with Memphis and UCLA being the only two teams falling below the line. The Tigers are at 0.994 while the Bruins are at 0.979 so they are not far off.

Putting together all of the rankings just looked at and arriving at an average pull out some surprises. Florida has the best average rank as the Gators are ranked 50th or better in all categories with the exception of schedule strength. They are followed closely by Texas and Connecticut with the Longhorns joining Florida as being the only other team not to be ranked outside the top 100 in any of the categories. The Mountaineers bring up the rear without a problem. A look at the average rankings:

39.5 FLORIDA
41.5 TEXAS
43.5 CONNECTICUT
50.7 GEORGETOWN
56.5 WICHITA STATE
57.0 LSU
59.3 WASHINGTON
66.3 GONZAGA
68.3 BRADLEY
68.5 UCLA
72.2 DUKE
77.5 BOSTON COLLEGE
77.5 VILLANOVA
79.8 GEORGE MASON
82.8 MEMPHIS
123.5 WEST VIRGINIA

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