NCAA TOURNAMENT HISTORY

Basketball Previews By: Jimmy Boyd
Jimmy Boyd of Locksmith Sports is the most consistent handicapper across all sports that the industry has to offer. Earning top 5 finishes in MLB, NBA, and College Football over the 2004 seasons, there isn't another handicapper that you can trust more than Jimmy Boyd.

Tournament History Worth Considering - Before filling out your tournament bracket it may be worth your while to take a look at some of the history of the NCAA Tournament. Let’s begin with the past 5 Champions as often times looking back too far can be a hindrance. Three of the last 5 Champions have come out of the ACC with North Carolina beating Illinois last year, Maryland defeating Indiana in 2002, and Duke winning over Arizona in 2001. Before North Carolina reemerged as National Champions last season the Big East collected titles in 2003 and 2004 with Syracuse and UConn. Picking an ACC team or a Big East team should be a safe bet to win it all. But don’t rule out the Big 10. A Big 10 team has made the title game 3 of the last 6 years with Michigan State winning it all in 2000. In a year when the Big 10 was the strongest conference from top to bottom, a Big 10 team could be strong pick to win it all. If we are using history, we can rule out the Big 12. The Big 12 has only had one team make the championship game in the last 5 years with Kansas losing to Syracuse in 2003 and Kansas could be the Big 12’s best chance this year, but it’s hard to know how such a young team will react under the pressure of the NCAA Tournament. I’m ruling a Big 12 champion out.

When you’re picking your Final Four, you may want to strongly consider having a 3 seed, as 3 seeds have made it to the Final Four 3 of the last 5 years with a pair of 3 seeds making it in 2003. Including 2 seeds in your Final Four is a must, as at least one 2 seed has made the Final Four 4 of the last 5 NCAA Tournaments. Surprisingly 5 seeds aren’t bad picks for the Final Four either as three 5 seeds have made the National Semifinals 3 of the last 6 years including Michigan State who made it as a 5 seed a year ago. The trouble with taking the 5 seed out is risking the chance that they could be knocked out in the first round by the infamous 12 seed pulling off an upset.

All 5 of the schools with the most national titles are in this year’s tournament field. UCLA leads the group with 11 all-time titles and the Bruins are enjoying their highest seed in a number of years. Kentucky and Indiana follow UCLA with 7 and 5 titles respectively, but with Indiana as a 6 seed and Kentucky as an 8, I don’t see either team adding to their totals this year. North Carolina and Duke cap off the top 5 with 4 national championships for the Tarheels and 3 for the Blue Devils. It could be the most storied teams who have the best chance to win the 2006 Tournament. UCLA, Duke, and North Carolina have legitimate shots at cutting down the nets in Indianapolis.

Notice that we haven’t talked about any 4 seeds in our list of Champions. Although Louisville made it to the Final Four as a 4 seed last season, 4 seeds aren’t safe bets. In fact a 13 seed defeating a 4 has been the big first round shocker over the last 7 years. Oklahoma pulled off an upset over Arizona back in 1999 as a 13 seed. In 2001 a pair of 13 seeds defeated 4’s, and unlucky 13’s were able to knock off 4 seeds in 2002, 2003, and 2005 as well. You may want to strongly consider finding a 13 over a 4 upset in this year’s NCAA Tournament.

History doesn’t always repeat itself, but I think these are a few strong leads to consider.

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