It's one of those age-old
questions that continues to plague us in this
results-driven world. Sports betting is hardly
an exception. We're in a new age of advanced metrics,
developed to gauge as accurately as possible the
quality of both individual and team performance.
Handicappers need this information like a flower
needs sunlight.
Some metrics are better than
others. In college basketball, for example, the
NCAA's Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) has been
in use since 1981 to help the selection committee
better determine which teams are worthy of a Tournament
bid.
Handicappers can also refer
to these numbers; however, there is one important
caveat to consider: the emphasis on Strength of
Schedule (SOS) may help sort the men from the
boys in the major conferences, but it's not terribly
good at judging teams from mid-majors and the
lower conferences who can't avoid playing cupcake
opponents on a regular basis.
This is a serious problem.
As most of our readers know
by now, the top teams against the spread generally
come from outside the major conferences. Look
at the Weber State Wildcats, for example. New
coach Randy Raye has this team back in contention
for a Tournament berth; the Wildcats are running
away with the Big Sky Conference at 18-10 overall
(11-4 in BSky action) and a very tasty 16-6 ATS.
But the Big Sky is ranked
24th among the conferences according to RPI, below
the likes of America East and the MAAC. That leaves
Weber State with an RPI ranking of No. 146 –
not the stuff of legends.
Should the Wildcats make
it into March Madness, their RPI number will be
useless to handicappers who want to get a handle
on how Weber State might fare against one of the
major college powers. But there are other ways
to skin a ‘Cat.Statheads like Ken Pomeroy
and Dean Oliver have compiled their own rankings,
based roughly on the same “Pythagorean expectation”
model that Bill James invented for use in baseball.
According to the Pomeroy Ratings, Weber State
is ranked even lower at No. 172. Looks like the
Wildcats have a little more work to do before
they can regain their status as a first-round
upset candidate in your Tournament brackets.
Not that you have to wait
for March to give these advanced metrics a whirl.
Weber State’s next
matchup is Monday at Sacramento State. Pomeroy
has already used his formula to predict a final
score of 77-70 in favor of the Wildcats.
Another caveat, though: injuries
and morale are not factored in. You’ll still
have to do your homework to make an educated bet
on this matchup – but at least you have
some rational information to work with.
Go to the BetUS.com online
sportsbook today to bet on NCAA basketball. We
have the most current NCAA basketball odds and
lines, as well as player and game props. Join
BetUS.com to experience the best in online sports
betting action!
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Posted
on 2/22/2007 1:49:58 PM
College Basketball Betting - The Case Against
RPI
By BetUS Staff
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