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NBA Gamble - Don't Believe the Hype

Trust your own judgment when betting on the 2007 NBA Finals

June 4th, 2007

By Jason Brough
Bodog Nation Contributing Writer

They've practiced their prognosticating. Pronunciations too. Now, it's time for them to shine.

Mike Breen.

Mark Jackson.

Jeff Van Gundy.

The above are just a few of the talking heads who will be offering their commentary on the 2007 NBA Finals.

Add to the heap the sideline reporters, pre-game crew as well as the myriad sportscasters, beat writers and columnists who will be following the series and the coverage should end up somewhere between plentiful and daunting.

Information is, of course, important to bettors, but information and opinion are two different things.

"This guy here says the Spurs are great because they play like a team."

"But this guy here writes Tim Duncan can't hit free throws."

The problem is, it's easy to make the case for any team that's made it all the way to the NBA Finals. An experienced writer or broadcaster can spin it both ways, and that's the way media outlets like it. When ABC does its pre-game show, does it really want Jon Barry and Michael Wilbon agreeing on every point? That would make for pretty boring TV.

The networks and newspapers want conflict, and that puts bettors in the unenviable position of trying to figure out if someone is actually speaking their mind or just playing devil's advocate.

Just the Facts

G.K. Chesterton was an English writer in the early 20th century. He once said, "A weak mind is like a microscope, which magnifies trifling things but cannot receive great ones." (Pretty deep, huh?)

If Chesterton was still alive, he'd see a lot of weak minds analyzing sports.

You've heard it before:

"After enduring a thrashing like that, you have to wonder if this team is already dead." (Typically said after Game 1 of a series.)

"The look on his face says it all." (Actually, it doesn't.)

To be fair, announcers say stuff like that to be provocative. It stirs up the drama, and that's what sells.

The best bettors, however, put emotions aside and let the evidence - not hyperbole - do the talking. They might make the same observations that an announcer makes, but they actually follow up on those observations.
LeBron James - Bodog NationLeBron James bounced back fairly well after sub-par performances in Games 1 and 2 versus the Pistons. (AI Wire photo)

Good bettors ask (and then answer) questions like, how has the team or player bounced back from poor performances in the past? How have the oddsmakers reacted to the poor performance? Have oddsmakers over-reacted?

Using the Hype to Your Advantage

The best thing about the embellished stories that get hustled during every big sports event is that most people take them at full value.

The reality is that a lot of bettors like to be told what to do. It's easier. It gives them someone to blame when everything goes haywire. Why do you think sports handicappers make so much money? It ain't because they're picking so many winners.

Oddsmakers know how susceptible bettors are to "expert" opinion and set lines accordingly. Often, this creates value on the contrarian, or opposite, side.

For an example of someone who's used the gullibility of crowds to his advantage, here's an excerpt from a recent Fortune magazine article on billionaire investor Carl Icahn:

He's the contrarian to end all contrarians. "A lot of people bet against trends, but Carl goes beyond that," says Ken Moelis, chief of investment banking at UBS. "He'll buy at the worst possible moment, when there's no reason to see a sunny side and no one agrees with him." Explains Icahn: "The consensus thinking is generally wrong. If you go with a trend, the momentum always falls apart on you. So I buy companies that are not glamorous and usually out of favor. It's even better if the whole industry is out of favor."

It takes a lot of courage to operate this way. After all, misery loves company, and contrarians rarely have company when they crap out. In fact, they usually look like complete idiots.

Icahn, for example, bought a huge interest in Blockbuster a few years ago. The stock has since tanked and Icahn has been disparaged for getting involved in the video-rental business, an industry that's severely threatened by the onset of online movie rentals and downloads.

Of course, for every loser, Icahn has plenty of winners with which to retort. Over the last three years, the companies in which he's invested have increased in value by more than $50 billion.

It's tempting to put sportswriters and announcers up on a pedestal. Most of them have been involved in the game they cover their entire lives.

At the same time, when they make predictions, what's really on the line for them? These guys aren't betting. They don't care about point spreads and payouts, so even if they play devil's advocate at times, most of them end up picking the favorites to win.

Try going against the flow this NBA Finals. At the very least, you'll probably end up on the same side as your sportsbook. (And if you haven't heard, sportsbooks make money.)

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