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MARCH MADNESS: The Google Way

A mission to organize information and a commitment to trusting its own judgment are two lessons Google can teach college basketball bettors

Feb. 28, 2007

By Jason Brough
Bodog Nation Contributing Writer

Sergey Brin and Larry Page probably didn't discuss much college basketball when they met as Ph.D. students at Stanford University in 1995. At the time, they had more academic thoughts on their minds - namely, a little research project they were working on in the computer science department.

That project - which according to Brin and Page was designed to "crawl and index the Web" - was called Google. Yada, yada, yada - today, Google is one of the most successful companies in history.

In all likelihood, Brin and Page still don't know how to break down a zone defense with effective ball movement. That's not their thing. What they're good at is making money - as Google co-founders, their net worth has been pegged at around $14 billion apiece.

With March Madness just weeks away, bettors can learn a lot from Google, even if the guys running the company don't know a Greg Oden from a Charles Grodin.

The Mission

"Google's mission is to organize the world's information and make it universally accessible and useful."

That's how Google's "Company Overview" starts, and it suggests an important lesson for bettors who will soon be overrun with NCAA tournament information: organization is the key to success.

Put it this way: Did you know that Ohio State is ranked number-one in the polls? Of course, the Buckeyes have lost three games. Meanwhile, Nevada has only lost twice. Granted, Nevada plays in the Western Athletic Conference. Thus, the Wolf Pack's schedule is far easier than, say, Arizona, which plays in the Pac-10. Then again, the Wildcats lost to USC, a side that beat Oregon at Oregon. The only other team that managed to go into Eugene and win was - hold on a second, just checking - Arizona.

Get the point?

It's an impossible task to rank each team in your mind. There are simply too many variables for the human brain to coordinate: win-loss record, strength of schedule, recent play, quality wins. The list goes on.

You have to try to assign some order to the college basketball universe, and that's why power rankings exist...on paper. Most professional handicappers use power rankings in their sports betting. And they don't rely on others' work - they do their own. Your system could be as simple as rating the teams you've seen play on television. Or, it could be as complicated as the one statistician Mike Greenfield uses.

No ranking will ever be 100 percent accurate. (Heck, Google does a pretty good job at organizing information, but that doesn't mean veterinarians searching for information on blind zebras don't end up finding an article on Dick Bavetta now and again.)

What rankings provide are a good starting point, because - be honest now - if, say, Air Force played, say, Louisville today, could you assign a point spread? Would you even know which team should be favored, or would you just have to take the oddsmaker's word?

Trust Your Own Judgment

As you look to create your rankings, one thing that won't be in scarce supply is so-called expert opinion.

A few years ago, Google executives were hearing plenty of expert opinion, mostly from investment bankers who were keen to take the company public. Google wanted to use a Dutch auction for the initial public offering, a process that's outside the scope of this article. What's important to know is that it would result in lower fees for the bankers as well as less shares for the bankers' favored clients. Not surprisingly, the bankers weren't crazy about the Dutch auction idea. They advised Google to go the traditional IPO route and warned of dire consequences if it did not. In the end, Google went with its gut and the Dutch auction offering was extremely successful.

Not that all college basketball opinions come with ulterior motives attached, but there are occasionally stories behind the stories. Consider ESPN's Dick Vitale recent troubles, for example.

A few days ago on the radio, this is what Vitale had to say about Florida's Joakim Noah and Al Horford: "Right now, I talked to some NBA guys who have a little doubt about [Noah]. I mean, he's still going to get drafted top six or seven, but [he has] no shot. No shot. I'm going to tell you what. I'd take Horford over him. You know who told me that in confidence? Billy Donovan grabbed me all alone and said the pro scouts are making a mistake. He said there's no way I would take Noah over - he said he would never say that publicly - over Horford."

Donovan denied making the comment and Vitale, who didn't know he was on the air at the time he made the remarks, quickly apologized. He added, "Do you ever shoot the breeze with your buddies? I basically was just paraphrasing something that Billy [Donovan] said and took some liberties with it I shouldn't have."

Now, Dick Vitale is considered one of the preeminent college basketball experts in the nation. Regardless of what was or was not said, just think about his situation for a second - will he really be able to speak objectively about the Florida Gators for the rest of the year? Sure he will...and if you believe that, I've got this to sell you.

TOP PHOTO: Sergey Brin (left) and Larry Page founded Google with a commitment to organizing the world's information. (AP Images)

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